There are no significant economic data on tap today. The only notable event is the 7yr Treasury auction (the last of the week) and it’s a bit of a stretch to refer to a 7yr auction as “notable.” Far more interesting were the overnight developments in Japan, resulting in a 34yr low for Yen vs the dollar. Yen weakness has often precipitated selling of USD-denominated assets (like Treasuries) by the bank of Japan. This is never enough to completely change a trend in US rates, but it has added volatility at times. In light of that news overnight, waking up to modest gains this morning is a victory.
Here’s the longer-term relationship between rates and Yen:
There are certainly other variables in play that contribute to this generally inverse relationship and there is certainly plenty of variation over shorter time horizons. Today has proven to be a good example. The actual phenomenon of long-term lows for Yen was not a huge deal as it was just a small extension of existing weakness. Moreover, investors who’d been worried about negative comments from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) were instead treated to a more moderate approach.
In other words, there are past examples of major Yen weakness that result in the BOJ saying it will take measures to bolster the Yen. Those “measures” are either explicit promises to sell USD-denominated assets or they’re vague comments that are assumed to be the same. In today’s case, there were no such comments–at least not yet. The BOJ and Japan’s Ministry of Finance will be meeting at 6:15pm ET to discuss an official response to Yen weakness.
How much could that impact Treasuries? That remains to be seen, but it wouldn’t be nearly enough to counteract any cohesive message in domestic economic data. In other words, it would just add noise to the front line market movers for US rates.
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