Even Narrower Sideways Grind; No Reaction to Auction
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:28 PM
Friday’s trading session set a reasonably wide range relative to the past few weeks. It also set the highest yields of the past few weeks. But things have gotten increasingly sideways since then. Yesterday’s entire range was well inside Friday’s. Now today’s range is well inside yesterday’s. What does it all mean? There are only so many conclusions to draw from a sideways, increasingly narrow trend. “Indecision” is the most obvious conclusion and that would stand to reason with December’s CPI coming out on Thursday morning. This week’s Treasury auction cycle has some potential to to increase volatility, but that was not the case after today’s 3yr auction (essentially no reaction).
- NFIB Biz Optimism
- 91.9 vs 90.7 f’cast, 90.6 prev
- IBD Econ Optimism
- NFIB Biz Optimism
10:23 AM
sideways to slightly weaker overnight, but buyers in charge early. 10yr down 2.5bps to 4.004. MBS up 1 tick (0.03).
01:25 PM
No major reaction to 3yr Treasury auction (reasonably strong). 10yr down 1.4bps on the day at 4.015. MBS down 2 ticks (.06).
04:08 PM
Still super flat into the close. MBS down 1 tick (.03). 10yr down 1bp at 4.019.
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