- Data on Friday revealed hotter-than-expected Eurozone inflation in May.
- The core PCE price index report revealed a decline in US inflation
- Investors eagerly await the nonfarm payrolls report.
The EUR/USD weekly forecast is bullish as Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rises, contrasting with a drop in US inflation.
Ups and downs of EUR/USD
EUR/USD had a nearly flat week but closed well above its lows. The week started with a rally in the dollar after the release of better-than-expected consumer confidence figures. However, the euro was back on the front foot when data showed a decline in US GDP in Q1, raising expectations that the Fed will cut rates in September.
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Moreover, data on Friday revealed hotter-than-expected Eurozone inflation in May. The CPI rose from 2.4% to 2.6%, beating forecasts for a 2.5% increase. This slightly lowered expectations for an ECB rate cut next week, boosting the euro. More support came from a decline in US inflation as shown by the core PCE price index report.
Next week’s key events for EUR/USD
Next week, the US will release data on business activity in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, investors will watch the nonfarm payrolls report for clues on the Fed’s policy path. Meanwhile, in the Eurozone, traders will monitor the outcome of the European parliamentary elections.
The US employment report comes when there is uncertainty about the Fed’s policy outlook. The last monthly report revealed softer labor market conditions that raised expectations for rate cuts in the US. Another such report would indicate the start of a downtrend in the sector that would pressure the Fed to start lowering borrowing costs.
EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls seek new high above resistance trendline
On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken above a strong bearish trendline and is looking to make a higher high. Moreover, it has respected the 22-SMA as support, showing bulls are in control. At the same time, the RSI is rising after finding support at the 50 level, a sign of strong bullish momentum.
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However, the price must break above the 1.0900 resistance level before making a new high. A break above this level would clear the path for bulls to retest the 1.1101 resistance. However, if the resistance holds firm, the price might fall below the 22-SMA to retest the recently broken trendline before continuing higher.
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