XRP price prediction points to a 1,500% surge if the SEC approves an ETF. Could Ripple finally reach $27 and break resistance?
Ripple’s wild ride
Ripple (XRP) has experienced a rollercoaster ride in recent months, capturing the market’s attention with large price swings and major regulatory developments.
On Jan. 16, the token surged to a multi-year high of $3.39, fueled by strong market sentiment. However, the rally was short-lived.
As of Feb. 17, XRP has pulled back to $2.68, marking a 21% decline from its January peak. It remains approximately 31% below its all-time high of $3.89, which was reached in January 2018.
Despite this pullback, XRP remains one of the top-performing assets in the top 100, delivering an impressive 145% return over the past 90 days. This outpaces heavyweights like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), both of which have lost value during the same period.
Amid these fluctuations, broader market forces are also at play. The election of President Donald Trump introduced a more crypto-friendly atmosphere in the U.S., with the Trump administration’s positive stance on digital assets boosting investor confidence. This, in turn, has contributed to the upward trajectory of crypto assets, including XRP.
Additionally, the resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler has further fueled optimism, as market participants anticipate a more accommodating regulatory environment under the new SEC leadership of acting chair Mark Uyeda.
With a mix of strong price action, regulatory intrigue, and shifting political winds, what can we expect from XRP? Let’s explore this further in our Ripple price prediction.
Is the XRP ETF finally coming?
Amid ongoing volatility and key developments, XRP has remained in the spotlight.
A major turning point came on Feb. 13, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission formally acknowledged a filing from the New York Stock Exchange and Grayscale Investments for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund.
The proposal outlines a plan to convert Grayscale’s existing $16.1 million XRP Trust into a fully tradable ETF, with Coinbase Custody Trust Company acting as the custodian and BNY Mellon handling administrative duties.
The SEC’s acknowledgement means that the review process has officially begun, setting the stage for a potential approval or rejection within a 240-day window.
The first key deadline is set for mid-March, marking the start of a 45-day review period. After that, the SEC may either make a decision or extend the timeline, with a final decision expected by mid-October 2025.
But Grayscale isn’t the only firm pushing for an XRP ETF. The Chicago Board Options Exchange has also filed a 19b-4 application for Bitwise’s XRP ETF, with other firms also vying for approval. Unlike Grayscale, which seeks to convert an existing trust into an ETF, Bitwise is launching a completely new fund.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, recently discussed the challenges and progress of XRP ETF applications. He noted that while previous filings have seen starts and stops, with some firms withdrawing their applications, the fact that multiple issuers are now refiling suggests that the SEC is at least open to considering these ETFs.
Hougan remains cautiously optimistic, pointing out that while approval could take time, the SEC is becoming more willing to engage in discussions about these products.
He also highlighted a key difference between XRP and other commodity-based ETFs like Bitcoin and gold — those assets had regulated futures markets before their ETFs were approved, whereas XRP does not.
Although a futures market is not mandatory for XRP ETFs, it would play a key role in the approval process.
What makes these filings particularly striking is the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC. In December 2020, the SEC sued Ripple, arguing that XRP had been sold as an unregistered security.
Ripple scored a partial victory in August 2023 when a federal judge ruled that XRP is not a security when traded on secondary markets. However, regulatory uncertainty still persists, making the ETF approval process for XRP more complex compared to spot Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum ETFs.
Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, pointed out the irony — while the SEC remains in litigation with Ripple, it is simultaneously reviewing an ETF that would hold XRP. Geraci even called it an “enormous message,” suggesting that the SEC’s stance on XRP might be shifting.
Adding to the growing buzz, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have estimated a 65% probability of XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025.
XRP’s make-or-break moment looms
XRP is at a make-or-break moment, approaching a resistance level that has defined its fate for years.
Over the past two months, XRP has tested the $3.15 to $3.50 range, a zone that has consistently determined whether XRP breaks into a major rally or gets stuck in consolidation.
On Jan. 16, XRP reached a multi-year high of $3.39, but that attempt to push higher ultimately failed. Then, on Feb. 3, XRP plunged 43% to $1.94 as global markets were shaken by Trump’s tariff threats, causing a widespread selloff that led to one of the worst declines in crypto history.
Despite the chaos, XRP has since rebounded and is once again nearing the same resistance level, setting the stage for another potential breakout.
Beyond the short-term volatility, something even more significant is unfolding. XRP is nearing the completion of a rounding bottom pattern that has been forming since 2018, a structure that has taken nearly seven years to develop.
If XRP reaches its all-time high of $3.89, the pattern will officially complete, signalling the end of a prolonged accumulation phase. At that point, XRP would enter price discovery, meaning there would be no historical resistance left to hold it back.
The question now is what will provide the final push. Broader market conditions are not fully supportive yet, as Bitcoin hasn’t hit a new all-time high, and liquidity remains concentrated in just a few assets.
One of the biggest potential catalysts is ETF approval. If the SEC greenlights an XRP ETF, institutional demand could surge, driving prices past resistance with sheer volume.
Another key factor could be strategic adoption — if XRP is included in a financial system reserve or gains a major institutional use case, the surge in demand could propel it into uncharted territory.
The third wildcard is the SEC lawsuit appeal. If the appeal is dismissed, legal clarity alone could trigger a wave of buying.
Now, all eyes are on whether XRP can finally push through or if history will repeat itself once again. The next attempt to clear $3.50 may prove to be the most significant in its history.
XRP price prediction: Could history repeat itself?
XRP’s 2017 bull run remains a key reference point, with several indicators suggesting that XRP is now mirroring the setup that led to its parabolic rise.
One of the bullish arguments comes from Egrag Crypto, which points to the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB), a technical indicator used to determine whether an asset is in a bullish or bearish phase.
“Currently, we’re positioned above the BMSB,” he explains, noting that he had predicted XRP would revisit this level, even when the price was at $3.40. A successful retest of this support could signal that the market is gathering strength for the next move.
Egrag draws parallels to 2017 when XRP followed a nearly identical pattern. He notes that back then, XRP nearly hit the BMSB, which preceded a 1,500% surge in just four weeks, targeting the Fib 1.618 level.
Fibonacci levels are widely used in technical analysis to predict price movements, and in 2017, XRP’s breakout followed this exact pattern. If history repeats itself, Egrag suggests a 1,500% surge to $27.
Javon Marks takes this further, highlighting how XRP’s recent price action mirrors its 2017 breakout. Prices recently tested the all-time high as resistance, just as they did in 2017 before surging beyond it. Marks’ new second target is at $99, an astonishing 3,900% increase from current levels.
Beyond Fibonacci extensions, Elliott Wave theory also points to significant potential for XRP. Dark Defender has been tracking XRP’s wave structure since July 2023, when the price was around 40 to 50 cents.
According to his analysis, XRP is currently in Wave 4 of the Intermediate Cycle, with Wave 5 targeting $5.85. His Primary Cycle Waves, which track long-term movements, suggest a major upside target of $18.22.
“I’ve used the same structure since July 2023, and we are following it as the Northern Star,” Dark Defender explains, suggesting XRP has consistently respected this pattern. If his wave count holds, XRP could be on the verge of completing a major cycle.
However, big breakouts don’t happen in isolation. XRP still faces its biggest resistance zone between $3.15 and $3.50, which requires a major catalyst to break through.
For traders looking to take advantage of this setup, risk management is key. Placing stop-loss orders can help minimize losses in case of rejection, and avoiding over-leveraging is crucial, as sudden pullbacks could lead to liquidation.
However, nothing in the crypto market is guaranteed. The same indicators that suggest explosive upside potential can also fail under changing market conditions. Trade wisely, manage risk, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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