Bonds Bounce Despite Stronger Data
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 4:11 PM
Bonds lost ground overnight and logically added to the losses after the morning’s Jobless Claims data. Dovish comments from Fed’s Goolsbee helped push back in the other direction and month-end tradeflows added to gains in the afternoon. All told, it was a token correction much like last Friday’s, but one that had more of a foundation in a relevant market movement factor (i.e. new ideas from Goolsbee on the Fed possibly being able to claim some victories on inflation without the need to visibly damage the labor market as evidence of success).
- Jobless Claims
- 204k vs 215k f’cast, 202k prev
- GDP (Q4 final)
- 2.1 vs 2.1 f’cast, 2.0 prev
- GDP Delator
- 1.7 vs 2.0 f’cast, 4.1 prev
- Jobless Claims
08:49 AM
Weaker overnight and additional selling after data (despite an initial, paradoxical mini rally). 10s up 6bps at 4.667. MBS down 3/8ths after factoring out some illiquidity
12:24 PM
Back into positive territory on gradual gains kicked off by Goolsbee comments. MBS up 3 ticks (.19). 10yr still up 1.1bps at 4.618, but down from highs of 4.688.
02:58 PM
Best levels of the day with MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10s down about half a bp at 4.601
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