All in All a Pretty Logical Week
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 4:26 PM
It seems weird to consider, but Friday’s trading–and indeed, the week’s trading as a whole–was fairly logical. By the end of the previous week, econ data provided evidence that rates didn’t need to go any higher. This week’s data didn’t exactly confirm that in an overly forceful way, but it absolutely didn’t offer any arguments. Friday’s jobs report was the latest and most interesting example with revisions, unemployment, and wages doing more than enough to offset the higher headline compared to expectations. After today, the past two months of NFP readings make a lot more sense. It also makes sense that bonds rallied modestly. 200k+ is still strong. Sub 4% unemployment is still low, but it’s next week’s CPI that can truly determine just how quickly we can forget February’s unfriendly data.
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- 275k vs 200k f’cast
- last month revised down to 229k from 353k
- Unemployment Rate
- 3.9 vs 3.7 f’cast, 3.7 prev
- Wages
- 0.1 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.5 prev
- Nonfarm Payrolls
09:13 AM
2-way trading after mixed jobs report. Bonds were mostly stronger until just now, with 10yr yields back to ‘unchanged’ at 4.088. MBS are still up an eighth, but were up by more than a quarter point at their best levels.
11:00 AM
Giving back some of the initial, choppy improvement. MBS still up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr still just barely positive at 4.085
01:46 PM
Stable and flat. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.085.
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