Additional Mid-Day Gains Independent of Data and Events
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 4:13 PM
Bonds traded the day in two distinct sections. First up was the reaction to the Retail Sales data with a logical rally following the weaker results. Gains weren’t especially huge and a modest correction lasted until 11am. At that point, the second shift began with volume profiles suggesting position squaring ahead of Wednesday’s holiday closure. The preponderance of Fed speakers could also have been deemed supportive, but the timing and trading volumes don’t support that conclusion very well. This mini bull run ended with the 20yr bond auction which caused brief, 2-way trading without leaving a lasting impression. Bonds were flat after that.
- Retail Sales
- 0.1 vs 0.2 f’cast
- last month revised down to -0.2 from 0.0
- Industrial Production
- 0.9 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.0 prev
- Retail Sales
08:46 AM
flat overnight with a modest rally after Retail Sales. MBS up nearly a quarter point. 10yr down 4.3bps at 4.24.
10:21 AM
Backtracking from AM gains a bit. 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.26. MBS up 3 ticks (.09).
01:08 PM
stronger into the auction and little changed after. 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.22. MBS up a quarter point.
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