Uneventful Monday Fits Fed Week Narrative
Mon, Sep 18 2023, 4:08 PM
After last week’s economic data ebbed and bonds sold-off with Europe on Friday, we knew we’d likely be waiting until Wednesday’s Fed events for the next significant bond market input. That leaves the path of least resistance as a generally sideways range just under the long-term high yields. AM trading was weak enough to approach those highs without breaking them (the actual 10yr high today is 4.358, not the 4.415 seen in many charts due to reasons discussed in this morning’s commentary). The rest of the day was spent rallying calmly back into the range but not forcefully enough to be interesting.
10:31 AM
Slightly weaker overnight, sideways and choppy in a narrow range so far this AM. 10yr unchanged at 4.337. MBS down 1 tick (0.03).
12:24 PM
Into positive territory now. MBS up 1 tick and 10yr down 1.1bps at 4.325.
03:31 PM
Near the best levels. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2bps at 4.317.
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