The consequences of the Biden administration’s policy of non-engagement with Pyongyang played out this week in Russia’s Far East. Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Kim with full fanfare; they toured Russian space launch facilities and airplane factories while dining on crab dumplings, sturgeon and beef. Kim pledged to give Russia “full and unconditional support” for its aggressive war in Ukraine. North Korea will likely manufacture and transfer large quantities of munitions that will end up killing Ukrainian civilians.
In return, Kim got something even more important from Putin: He essentially announced the end of the multilateral military technology sanctions regime that Russia had supported (at least rhetorically) for decades. In April, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev publicly warned the South Korean government that any military support for Ukraine could result in Russia giving North Korea advanced weapons. Now Putin is making good on that threat.
Russia’s transfer of satellite and rocket technology could make the Kim regime’s sizable nuclear arsenal even more dangerous. The U.S. and South Korean governments both promised this week that such actions would result in repercussions. But neither Putin nor Kim seems especially worried.
Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, told me the Biden administration’s lack of any diplomatic initiative toward North Korea has contributed to the current impasse. Over the past two years, Biden officials have repeatedly stated that they are open to negotiations with Pyongyang over its nuclear program with no preconditions. But they must know that’s a nonstarter for Kim.
“It’s been a nonpolicy. Just saying we are open to diplomacy is the most passive way of doing things,” Town said. “There’s an arms race going on in East Asia. Why would the North Koreans talk to us about denuclearization now?”
The Biden team has pursued very active diplomacy with East Asian allies such as Japan and South Korea, aimed at intensifying military cooperation and strengthening deterrence. That’s wise — but not enough on its own. There’s no visible effort to restart talks with Pyongyang. The State Department’s special representative for North Korea, Sung Kim, also has a full-time job as ambassador to Indonesia — which doesn’t exactly signal any serious intent to the North Koreans.
With any further sanctions blocked by Russia and China, the only way to persuade Pyongyang to talk is to put something it wants on the table. This need not be a concession on the military or nuclear front. Kim faces economic troubles, food insecurity and public health needs, all of which the United States could help alleviate.
“We are trying to convince an insecure country that it doesn’t need nuclear weapons by threatening it,” Town said. “We haven’t provided any incentives for North Korea to see us as a viable option.”
Privately, Biden officials often say that there’s no sign the North Koreans are interested in talking to the United States. The long-used communication channel that runs through Pyongyang’s United Nations mission in New York remains in place, but it has gone largely silent. Official statements coming out of North Korea’s propaganda ministry range from the insulting to the absurd.
U.S. officials also note that the South Koreans have little interest in pursuing negotiations with the North, following the failure of the previous administration in Seoul. The administration’s North Korea-watchers also argue that Trump’s erratic and incoherent diplomatic gambit undermined any trust Kim had in the United States.
To be sure, any Biden administration effort to reengage with North Korea would be very difficult; the chance of success would be low. There’s also a high likelihood it would prove a political loser for Biden, especially as he prepares to run for reelection. Engaging with North Korea requires both leadership and political capital.
But it is precisely because Trump’s diplomacy was a such a mess that Biden should try again. Kim could be in power for several decades. Shouldn’t at least one serious attempt to engage him be mounted? What will happen if Trump comes back to office? That could mean four more years of erratic threats and love letters.
Strategic patience is dangerous in 2023 for the same reason it was dangerous when the Obama administration practiced it a decade ago. When there’s no diplomacy, North Korea accelerates its weapons programs and grows closer to U.S. adversaries — and the risk of conflict rises. Engaging the Kim regime is hard. Not engaging it is much worse.
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