Bonds Start Week Off With a Bang
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 4:03 PM
After a weaker overnight session, bonds bounced back swiftly after this morning’s ISM Manufacturing data. The headline was roughly as-expected, but sharply weaker employment and “new orders” outweighed the highest “prices paid” component in more than 2 years. It took less than 15 minutes for moderate losses to flip to moderate gains. Very little happened after that apart from a slow and mostly steady trickle to even stronger levels. It bears repeating that the gains were centered on econ data as opposed to any other news.
- ISM Manufacturing
- 50.3 vs 50.5 f’cast, 50.9 prev
- ISM Prices
- 62.4 vs 56.2 f’cast, 54.9 prev
- ISM Employment
- 47.6 vs 50.1 f’cast, 50.3 prev
- ISM New Orders
- 48.6 vs 54.6 f’cast, 55.1 prev
- ISM Manufacturing
10:09 AM
Bouncing back to positive territory after ISM data. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.194
01:10 PM
Stock losses spilling over to help bonds again. 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.174. MBS up 2 ticks (.06).
03:22 PM
Best levels of the day. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.165
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