Ultimately a Very Drama-Free Day; Back to Watching Data
Tue, Jul 2 2024, 5:00 PM
Tuesday helped buck the recent trend of frustratingly counterintuitive selling sprees in the bond market. The amount of blame assigned to politics or to the arcane practices dictating monthly positioning in bonds can be debated, but there’s less urgency on that front with today bringing moderate improvement. Fed Chair Powell’s appearance at SINTRA was a non-event, but perhaps in a “no whammies” sort of way. Bonds gradually improved during his time on stage but lost some ground after the JOLTS data (as it should be, considering the higher than expected reading). Buyers held firm, however, and we hit the close with gains intact. To some, that’s proof positive that there’s no glacial repricing of risk following the presidential debate. To others, it’s a suggestion that it didn’t matter as much as it may have seemed. Either way, we have big ticket data to look forward to in the next two business days.
- Job Openings (lower = better for rates)
- 8.14m vs 7.91m f’cast, 7.919m prev
- Job “Quits” (lower = better for rates)
- Job Openings (lower = better for rates)
09:46 AM
Moderately stronger overnight with additional gains in early trading. MBS up more than an eighth. 10yr down 4bps at 4.423
11:00 AM
Some weakness after JOLTS, but improving again now. MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 3.1bps at 4.433
02:53 PM
Modest additional improvement with 10yr down 2.9bps at 4.435 and MBS up 6 ticks (.19)
04:54 PM
Closing at decent levels, right in line with the previous update.
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