Republicans continue to campaign on “Biden’s crime crisis” and promise they’ll return America to “a nation’s that safe.” Voters also appear to believe crime is still rising. In reality, national crime rates have been falling. For some metrics, they are even lower than they were during the Trump era.
All kinds of crime shot up during the pandemic, but the trends have reverted in the past couple of years. For instance, quarterly estimates released this week by the FBI show that violent crime fell 15 percent in the first quarter of 2024 compared with a year earlier, with even larger declines for rape and murder. If these trends continue for the rest of the year, the country might see its largest annual decline in violent crime on record.
In fact, an analysis from consulting firm AH Datalytics suggests that murder rates in 2024 are on track to be at or below what they were every year of Donald Trump’s presidency, based on observed declines so far this year.
(Speaking of crime: Republicans’ claim that Biden has weaponized the criminal justice system should be obsolete following his son’s felony conviction. Alas, Republicans can’t seem to relinquish that narrative, either.)
Or, consider immigration.
Yes, the U.S.-Mexico border has been overwhelmed for a while. This problem requires more resources and new policy tools (perhaps, ahem, something like the bipartisan border bill that Trump tanked). But recent numbers suggest that unlawful border crossings between ports of entry are now declining — during a time of year when they usually rise.
Preliminary data show that border apprehensions in May were below their levels for May in each of the past three years. In fact, illegal border crossings are below their level for the same month of 2019, the last pre-pandemic year under Trump.
One might also look at energy.
Republican politicians and strategists often claim that Biden has waged a war on energy. He has “closed up the oil,” Trump says, and ended American “energy independence.” These claims might have sounded plausible circa 2022, when U.S. crude oil production was stuck below pre-pandemic levels.
Since then, oil production has surged. In recent months, the United States has been producing more crude oil than at any point in its history. In fact, it’s producing more oil than any country has, ever. And it’s not just about oil; nearly every major form of energy production or storage has recently reached record highs.
For more than two years now, the United States has also been a net exporter of crude and petroleum products, meaning we export more than we import. Being a net exporter is typically what Republicans mean when they say the country was “energy independent” during the Trump administration. And yes, we were energy independent for a few months at a time late in the Trump administration. But we’ve been energy independent for far longer — more than two years straight — under Biden. This inconvenient fact rarely penetrates Republican rhetoric.
Finally, there’s inflation. Republicans frequently talk about several-decade-high inflation numbers or skyrocketing grocery prices. It is true that one major measure of inflation skyrocketed to 9 percent year-over-year, its highest level in about four decades. That dubious achievement, however, happened back in June 2022.
Since then, inflation has come far down, to a little more than 3 percent in the most recent report released this week for May. Grocery inflation has plummeted even further, from its peak of 13.5 percent in mid-2022 to just 1 percent year-over-year in the most recent reading.
To be clear: Consumers want prices to outright fall, which rarely happens (and if it does, it’s a sign the economy is in serious trouble). The fact that grocery prices are rising at a slower pace than they did in 2022 probably won’t appease them. Republicans have taken advantage by calculating “Bidenflation” over longer time horizons, such as several years, which not normally how inflation is measured.
As I have written ad nauseam, presidents are not omnipotent. Their policies can influence things, sure, but presidents don’t control the economy, crime rates, energy prices, stock markets and all the other things they get blamed (or credited) for. That said, if Republicans are going to hold the president responsible for everything that happens on his watch, they should at least include the entirety of that watch.
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