But before Republicans start measuring the drapes in the majority leader’s office, they should take a hard look at their candidates.
In Arizona, Republicans are bent on nominating MAGA maniac Kari Lake, who lost her gubernatorial bid in 2022. For their Ohio nominee, Republicans went with Bernie Moreno, the choice of four-times-indicted former president Donald Trump, who suggested his opponent was too sympathetic toward LGBTQ+ issues — and yet, according to an Associated Press report, Moreno had an account created under his email address in 2008 on a website for gay men seeking casual sex. (A former Moreno intern has said he created the account as a juvenile prank.) Republicans cleared the field in Pennsylvania for David McCormick, whose residency in Pennsylvania is in doubt — bringing back memories of Mehmet Oz, the New Jerseyan who never recovered in 2022 from gibes about his residence.
By contrast, Democrats are running some of their savviest incumbents, each with a knack for ticket-splitting, such as Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. Tester, you might recall, won by four points in 2012 despite President Barack Obama losing the state by almost 14 points. Likewise, Brown won in 2018 by about seven points while a Republican won for governor by four points and House Republicans won 12 of 16 seats with 75 percent of all votes cast in House races in Ohio. And in Wisconsin, Baldwin won in 2018 by 11 points, running about six points above the Democratic governor at the top of the ticket.
In addition, Democrats have recruited for open seats rising stars well-suited to their states (such as Reps. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan and Ruben Gallego in Arizona). Unlike with the GOP, the most extreme elements in the Democratic Party do not dominate the Senate primaries. Democrats also caught a break when incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, an independent, decided not to run as a third-party candidate in Arizona.
With such a divergence in candidate quality, the contest for control of the Senate is taking on some 2022 vibes. Then, Republicans thought they would win the Senate going away. However, as Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) let on, they suffered from a severe “candidate quality” problem. Election deniers and assorted weak candidates in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada doomed their chances. Democrats actually picked up a seat, nearly unheard of in a president’s first midterm.
Likewise, in 2010, Republicans ran fringe candidates such as Christine “I am not a witch” O’Donnell in Delaware, tea party extremists Sharron Angle in Nevada and Ken Buck (then to the far right of his party) in Colorado, blowing a shot at winning the majority (although they did pick up six other seats).
The disparity in candidate quality is one reason many analysts rate the Senate as a toss-up even though Democrats must defend 23 seats. Despite a Republican-friendly map (mostly safe Republican seats, many vulnerable Democratic seats), Democrats still have a shot to hold on to their narrow majority. Even less extreme candidates such as Hogan will be weighed down by their association with the MAGA-dominated GOP.
Democrats have another major advantage: abortion. Republicans post-Dobbs have run into a buzz saw of public opinion in individual races as well as in referendums (Kansas, Michigan, Ohio) that demonstrated how unpopular the Republican position is even among GOP voters. Moreover, a number of states might feature abortion measures on the ballot in November, including some with competitive Senate races (Arizona, Montana, Nevada). Those ballot measures might help drive Democrats to the polls. Abortion measures will likely also appear on the ballot in Florida and Texas, giving Democratic Senate candidates a lift in two states rated as likely but not solidly Republican. (In particular, keep an eye on moderate and telegenic Rep. Colin Allred in Texas. He is already declaring he will protect abortion access, so Republican Sen. Ted Cruz “can’t force women to flee their own state to get the health care that they need.”)
In addition, the high number of Democratic seats to defend comes as a double-edged sword. On one hand, it gives Republicans more targets. However, incumbent reelection rates have been sky-high for many election cycles. In 2022, all incumbents won. The reelection rate over the past 20 years is 86 percent.
Finally, the money race so far favors Democrats, who are simply outraising their opponents. Roll Call reported last month that, according to Federal Election Commission filings, “most Democratic incumbents and challengers in battleground Senate races raised more than opponents during the last three months of 2023 and had bigger bankrolls at the start of the year.” That might be why Republicans are running so many self-funding millionaires. That, however, leaves them vulnerable to the argument they are trying to “buy” Senate races and do not understand the problems of ordinary voters. (Republicans also rightly worry that money donated to the party will go to Trump’s lawyers.)
Certainly, Democrats have a tough job to hold on to the Senate majority. Moreover, without a Biden-Harris victory, Democrats will not have the vice president’s tiebreaking vote. That said, Democrats remain competitive in large part because Republicans have gone off the deep end, tying themselves to Trump, espousing radical views that don’t even sell in red states and scaring off a segment of donors.
There is a price to be paid for jettisoning democracy and aligning with a cult of personality. That price just might include blowing yet another chance to take over the Senate majority.
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