Super High Potential Energy Surrounding Tuesday’s Data
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 4:18 PM
Monday proved to be the quintessential placeholder trading day that it was probably always destined to be. Bonds lost a modest amount of ground early, regained most of it, and then lost it again by the close. All told, it was only a few bps in terms of 10yr yields and thus not worth writing home about. Trading levels have obviously leveled off in a sideways holding pattern ahead of Tuesday’s CPI. On that note, it would be difficult to overstate the potential energy for bonds waiting on the other side of 8:30am ET. Granted, there’s always a chance that the needle is threaded and little movement ensues, but there’s also a chance that it’s the most dramatic day for bonds in months, for better or worse.
09:28 AM
Sideways to slightly weaker in uneventful trading. MBS down an eighth. 10yr up half a bp at 4.081
12:14 PM
Weaker into the 11am hour, but recovering now. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.10
03:05 PM
Slightly stronger after 1pm TSY auction, but weaker into 3pm close. 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.10. MBS down 5 ticks (.16)
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