Southwest border encounters have been rising in recent months, and cities across the country have struggled to manage an influx of desperate migrants not legally allowed to work and support themselves. Over in the Senate, lawmakers have been hashing out a bipartisan deal to address the issue.
From what we know about the deal so far, there’s much to find objectionable, including attempts to hamstring the asylum and humanitarian parole systems. Which is unsurprising, given that it’s being pushed by Republican hard-liners such as Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), James Lankford (Okla.) and Lindsey Graham (S.C.).
But whatever ends up in this evolving deal, GOP House lawmakers have already preemptively rejected it.
Speaker Mike Johnson (La.) and other GOP House leaders have said that anything less than H.R. 2 — a draconian messaging bill that could never pass the Democratic-controlled Senate — would be “dead” in their chamber.
Yet during a news conference Wednesday, Johnson suggested the Senate deal might also be too broad. “I don’t think now is the time for comprehensive immigration reform,” he said.
Got that? The Senate deal will do too little and too much.
If that critique sounds incoherent, that’s because it is. The real aim of House leadership might be not to push negotiations in any particular direction but to blow them up entirely.
In a conference call this week, Johnson told his colleagues that Congress cannot solve the border crisis until Donald Trump or another Republican is president again, Punchbowl News reported. Which seems to give the game away: Rather than resolve a telegenic crisis, Republicans apparently plan to keep it going to mobilize their base ahead of the election.
“After congressional Republicans spent years elevating the border crisis, calling it an invasion and rightfully pushing for immediate action, the House Republican position is now basically ‘Let’s wait for Trump’ — even though he may not get elected and definitely couldn’t pass a border bill,” an unnamed Senate Republican aide told Punchbowl.
Other GOP officials have said as much on the record, too.
“There are some that are saying, ‘Hey, we don’t want Biden to actually get credit for doing anything on the border, because obviously, he’s made a huge mess,’” said Lankford, the lead Republican negotiator in the Senate.
Trump is similarly urging his congressional acolytes to hold the line. As he wrote on his platform Truth Social, “I do not think we should do a Border Deal, at all, unless we get EVERYTHING needed to shut down the INVASION of Millions & Millions of people, many from parts unknown, into our once great, but soon to be great again, Country!”
If you think Trump and others could genuinely push through “tougher” policy with control of the White House, think again.
Many voters might not realize this, but any seasoned politician knows that an immigration bill like this would need 60 votes to advance in the Senate, which means it would require at least a few votes from Democrats. This would be a high hurdle for any hard-line border bill, but Republicans have unusually strong leverage right now because Biden and other Democrats are eager to neutralize the border as a campaign issue. They are also anxious to pass more Ukraine aid (which would be bundled in this bill).
If Congress instead were to wait for a Republican to return to the White House to craft a bill, Democrats would likely withhold their votes to extract significant concessions on progressive priorities (such as a pathway to citizenship for “dreamers,” undocumented immigrants largely brought here as children).
This will likely be the dynamic even if Republicans end up controlling the presidency and both chambers of Congress, since Republicans probably can’t win 60 Senate seats.
Don’t take my word for it. McConnell and his frustrated GOP Senate colleagues have laid out this political logic themselves. As Graham said Wednesday in a news conference, “To those who think that if President Trump wins, which I hope he does, that we can get a better deal: You won’t. You gotta get 60 votes in the United States Senate.”
If House Republicans actually cared about alleviating strain at the border, there is plenty they could throw their support behind. They could, for instance, create more legal pathways to come to the United States so that people don’t show up at the border unannounced and unvetted. Or lawmakers could devote more resources to border operations and the asylum system so that cases can be adjudicated more swiftly.
But when there’s no will, there’s no way.
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