Much Stronger Than Justified, But That Can Happen This Time of Year
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 4:08 PM
On many of the recent days with a similar amount of movement in the bond market, there was a logical correlation between the underlying data/events/news and the market movement. For instance, friendly data or friendly Fed comments pushed rates lower in a way that generally made sense. Today is quite different. We have an 11bp rally in 10yr yields to the lowest levels in months, and no obvious catalyst. One could argue that bonds are simply following the medium term trend, but that’s a lousy justification. Best bet: keep the late December thesis in focus. Specifically, we should always expect to see random volatility with bigger-than-normal movement in the 2nd half of December. The real surprise is that we had to wait this long to see it.
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
- -11 vs -3 f’cast, -5 prev
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:08 AM
stronger overnight with additional gains early. 10yr down 5.4bps at 3.843. MBS up a quarter point.
01:43 PM
Stronger after 5yr auction. 10yr yields down 9.5bps to 3.802. MBS up almost 3/8ths.
03:59 PM
No correction after post-auction gains. 10s down 10.8bps at 3.789 and MBS up 3/8ths.
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