The probable outcome is something very different. It is further electoral gains for extreme-right parties that can now claim ideological vindication — even as they push for even more draconian policies to bar Europe’s doors to foreigners.
There are two main reasons to believe that scenario is likely — and to fear it, as I do.
One is that some of Europe’s traditional mainstream governing parties are splintering as their leaders embrace anti-migrant crackdowns they previously regarded as ruthless and unworkable. The second is that chances are slim the new policies will do enough to satisfy fed-up voters.
That combination — of bitterly divided centrists running headlong into emboldened right-wing parties crowing “I told you so!” amid a swelling migrant surge — is a recipe for political upheaval.
For governing parties, the peril is even greater given Europe’s grim fiscal outlook for 2024, which portends deep cuts in public spending — and pinched family budgets — that could prompt many voters to blame migration for their struggles.
You could get a glimpse of the dim prospects for pragmatists, and the swelling triumphalism of populists, in the fallout from a harsh immigration bill enacted by France’s fractious Parliament on Wednesday. The law accelerates deportations; ends automatic birthright citizenship for some migrants’ children; toughens French language requirements to secure residency permits; and slashes subsidies for housing and children, even for some legally documented foreigners.
President Emmanuel Macron supported the bill but dozens of lawmakers from his own middle-of-the-road party defected, some in anger; his government’s health minister resigned in protest. When the measure passed, backed by hard-right nationalists, their champion, Marine Le Pen, whose signature issue has been strident opposition to immigration, declared an “ideological victory.” She is now rated the front-runner in France’s next presidential election, in 2027.
Hours after France’s vote, the European Union struck a landmark deal on tougher migration rules, including broader detention for lone asylum seekers as well as families with children, who would be held at facilities near the E.U.’s frontiers and processed within three months. The pact would also allow richer northern European countries, where many asylum seekers hope to settle, to refuse them admission — providing they pay compensation to poorer southern countries where most migrant boats land.
The accord, reached after a years-long impasse, awaits ratification by the European Parliament and member states and would not take effect until 2025. At current trends — asylum applications in Europe could hit 1 million this year — that means hundreds of thousands more migrants would arrive before the measure goes into force.
That’s a gift for far-right parties already soaring in polls across the continent.
They are ascendant in France, whose economy is relatively strong, and in Germany, which is struggling with a recession. In the Netherlands, the most notorious anti-migration politician, an also-ran for decades, finished first in national elections last month. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose party’s roots in postwar fascism made it an outlier for decades, took power on a platform whose centerpiece was opposition to migration.
The E.U.’s new blueprint is an attempt to blunt the momentum of those rising parties, which in many cases are hostile not only to immigration but also to climate science, minorities, women’s rights and LGBTQ+ communities. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said it “means that Europeans will decide who comes to the EU and who can stay, not the smugglers.”
But there is scant evidence it will work to deter asylum seekers from seeking refuge in Europe, where job shortages and relative social stability retain their magnetic appeal for African and Middle Eastern migrants seeking better lives.
A telling example is Italy, where Meloni has taken a kitchen-sink approach to deterring further arrivals — paying Tunisia’s dictator to accept deportees and prevent migrants from leaving; impeding humanitarian sea rescue boats in the Mediterranean that, she says, incentivize migrants and smugglers; and a recent deal that would house asylum seekers in camps in Albania.
It hasn’t worked. More than 150,000 unauthorized migrants have arrived in Italy so far this year, up more than 50 percent from the same period in 2022. “On migration, the results are not the ones expected,” she said this week.
To stanch inflows significantly, leaders might need to take steps that would shock the conscience of most Europeans — and let thousands more migrants drown at sea. That seems unlikely for now. But as the political winds shift, what seems unimaginable today could redefine the continent in 2024.
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