It’s a collective action problem reminiscent of the 2016 GOP nominating contest, which Mr. Trump won despite garnering support from only a minority of voters; the Stop Trump vote split among Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.), former Ohio governor John Kasich and, through the Florida primary, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.). When then-Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker dropped out in September 2015, he urged Republicans to rally behind someone not named Trump. “This is fundamentally important to the future of the party and, more importantly, to the future of our country,” he declared. But he did not endorse Mr. Cruz until March 29. That helped the Texan win Wisconsin’s primary, but it was too late. Mr. Walker said after the most recent debate this year that the primaries are “over, or close to it” because no one has been able to give Trump supporters “a compelling reason to change their vote.”
It’s time for more of the Republican candidates who don’t have a plausible case to follow the example set by former vice president Mike Pence. When he dropped out on Oct. 28, he urged GOP voters to choose a nominee who can “appeal to the better angels of our nature” and “lead our nation with civility back to the time-honored principles that have always made America strong and prosperous and free.” And whom could the party rally around? Coming into the third GOP debate, on Wednesday in Miami, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley looks increasingly well-suited to emerge as a viable alternative to Mr. Trump.
Her views on many — if not most — issues are not ours, but that’s not the point. The issue, for the country, is whether there is anyone within the Republican field who both has a chance to beat Mr. Trump for the nomination and would govern responsibly if she won next November. Ms. Haley, with her experience as governor of South Carolina — and, crucially, her insistence that the United States not abandon Ukraine and other global responsibilities — could fit the bill.
There’s a lot at stake. Mr. Trump could be less constrained in a second term than he was in his first. He could surround himself with extremist enablers, including in the Justice Department. He promises supporters at rallies that he will pursue “retribution” against perceived enemies. With only two months to go until the Iowa caucuses, however, Mr. Trump is a heavy favorite to win the GOP nod. State parties tried to stop him in 2016; now his team dominates that apparatus. But there are some signs of weakness. The 91 felony charges across four jurisdictions have so far not damaged his standing with Republicans — quite the contrary — but polls show that could change if he were convicted.
Make no mistake, Mr. Trump could defeat President Biden a year from now. A New York Times-Siena poll shows Mr. Trump ahead of Mr. Biden in most battleground states, but Ms. Haley can argue that she is even more electable. She holds bigger leads in hypothetical head-to-head matchups, according to the same poll. In that sense, it is harder for her to win the nomination than the general election.
Ms. Haley has momentum. She tied the fading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second in an Iowa poll last week with 16 percent, up 10 points from August. (Mr. Trump has 43 percent.) Without a competitive Democratic race in New Hampshire’s primary, likely to occur in late January, independents could cross over and vote for her. While she trails Mr. Trump by 31 points in South Carolina, 50 percent of likely voters in her home state said in an Oct. 31 CNN poll they would consider supporting her. If it becomes a two-way race going into Super Tuesday, when 15 states vote on March 5, Ms. Haley could have a shot at toppling the former president.
This is, undeniably, an against-the-odds scenario. But it’s important for Republicans who care about the rule of law and democracy, at home and abroad, not to despair. It’s tempting to ignore Wednesday’s debate because Mr. Trump refuses to show up and the nomination is his to lose. Those Republicans still holding out for a better option will be watching to see if Ms. Haley has what it takes to win.
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