US stocks are on pace to log a third straight losing month, which hasn’t happened to the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) since the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.
The S&P 500 officially entered correction territory on Friday, marking a 10% downturn from the recent high exactly three months ago.
And while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) is still up more than 22% this year and the S&P 500 is up 8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) has erased 2023 gains as the mood on Wall Street has soured since the summer.
And with stocks logging another losing month, Interactive Brokers’ Steve Sosnick told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday morning that “the onus for the market is to prove we can bottom and have a lasting rally.”
“Now, does that mean we’re going to plunge from here? Not necessarily,” Sosnick said. “But the setup isn’t great.”
The Federal Reserve has cast a stricter policy stance than many had anticipated over the summer, with its “higher for longer” interest rate outlook pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Treasury yields are now hovering near the highest levels in 16 years, and economists are increasingly concerned about what higher debt costs could mean for business development and overall economic growth.
All while the list of known unknowns has also grown, with tensions in the Middle East escalating and the latest deficit debate in Washington potentially leading to a government shutdown.
Still, the magnitude of this year’s drawdown isn’t uncommon.
Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick recently noted the average pullback in a given year for the S&P 500 is 14.3%. The S&P 500, which currently sits above 4,150, would need to fall to 3,950 to meet this historical average.
The S&P 500 is down 9.8% from the late July peak.
This hasn’t been fun, but remember the avg yr sees a peak to trough correction of 14.3% (since 1980). pic.twitter.com/klYLGfgfwF
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 27, 2023
Still, some on Wall Street see a case for stocks to rise through the end of the year.
Higher yields have weighed on stocks recently, but third quarter earnings are holding up well. Meanwhile, the US economy has remained strong despite fears of a slowdown, with this summer’s stock swoon also bringing valuations down to more attractive levels.
Moreover, investors may have market history on their side.
Detrick’s work shows that in the five previous instances since 1952 that the S&P 500 has dropped in each of August, September, and October, the index returns an average of 4.5% over the year’s final two months. Only December 1957 produced a negative return.
“Yes, stocks have been lower the past three months, but these final two months of the year tend to be quite bullish,” Detrick told Yahoo Finance via email. “Also, stocks are still up about 8% for the year, so it might feel worse right now, but let’s put things in context.” Since 1952, the S&P 500’s average annual total return has been just under 11%.
And Detrick isn’t the only strategist on the Street that still sees a path higher to end 2023.
On Monday, Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus, who had held the highest year-end S&P target among Wall Street strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance, cut his year-end outlook. Stoltzfus now sees the S&P 500 ending the year at 4,400, a noted shift from the 4,900 he projected when the market was at its highs at the end of July, but still about 6% higher than current levels.
Should the index reach Stoltzfus’s target, the S&P 500 would gain about 15% for the year.
“We view the three-month corrective occurrence experienced by stocks since August as likely near an end,” Stoltzfus wrote. “Valuations have come down substantially across the sectors … And resilience remains the operative word for the US economy.”
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.
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