On Oct. 17, the Maduro government and the Venezuelan opposition, known as the Unitary Platform, signed an agreement in Barbados setting out a road map to free and fair elections next year, including allowing international observers and providing all candidates freedom of movement and assembly and equal access to the media.
In return, the Biden administration lifted some sanctions so Venezuela could again sell oil in the United States, which had been halted in early 2019 when the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on the state oil company, forcing it to sell oil on the black market at a discount. The decision will bring billions in new oil revenue to Mr. Maduro’s regime.
The deal has a serious omission that will test Mr. Maduro’s sincerity. María Corina Machado, a conservative former legislator who was selected in a primary Sunday to lead the opposition, and who is regarded by many voters as having the best chance to oust Mr. Maduro, was barred from running in June by Mr. Maduro’s government, based on charges that she failed to complete a declaration of assets and income when she was a legislator. The ban is spurious. Yet it could still be an obstacle going into next year’s campaign, in which Mr. Maduro is expected to run.
The Barbados agreement calls for competitive elections and the right of each party to pick its candidate “in a free manner.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States expects the “expedited reinstatement of all candidates” before the end of November. However, the chief Venezuelan negotiator said the deal does not provide for such rehabilitation.
Wisely, the United States made its sanctions relief conditional. In addition to allowing all candidates to run, Mr. Blinken said Venezuela must soon “begin the release of all wrongfully detained U.S. nationals and Venezuelan political prisoners.” The regime released five political prisoners after the agreement. Three U.S. citizens are still wrongfully detained in Venezuela: Eyvin Hernandez, Jerrel Kenemore and Joseph Ryan Cristella. The families of all three have denied they were involved in any wrongdoing.
Mr. Blinken vowed that “failure to abide by the terms of this arrangement will lead the United States to reverse steps we have taken.” It can be difficult to snap back sanctions once they have been discarded, particularly with Mr. Biden under pressure to stem migration to the U.S.-Mexico border. But this deal will fail if the president is unwilling to stand behind its threat.
There is ample reason for wariness about Mr. Maduro’s intentions. In the past, he has shown little tolerance for opposition. A United Nations report last year concluded that, to repress dissent, the Maduro security services have routinely subjected detainees to beatings, rape, electric shocks, mutilation, asphyxiation and other types of torture. The orders for the abuse came from Mr. Maduro and his high-level circle, the report found. Mr. Maduro also oversaw a string of elections that were neither free nor fair and has led Venezuela to economic ruin, as well as the exodus of 7.7 million people, one of the world’s largest mass displacements. In September, Venezuelans became the largest single nationality arrested for illegally crossing the U.S. border.
Whether Mr. Maduro now makes way for a truly competitive political process, or just collects oil revenue and pays lip service to democracy, will depend first on Mr. Maduro, but, second, on whether the opposition, Venezuelan civil society and the United States hold him to his commitments. Otherwise, the gamble will have made the situation even worse than before.
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