The news media has been buzzing with suggestions that Republicans would reach out to Democrats to make some sort of deal. Semafor reported: “As Steve Scalise’s gavel bid went down in flames, desperate House Republicans began publicly musing Thursday about working with Democrats to finally pick a speaker. But behind closed doors, there appears to have been little effort so far to hatch a bipartisan deal.” Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Mike D. Rogers (R-Ala.) have been hinting at such an arrangement to reporters, without providing details. Likewise, Rep. Michael R. Turner (R-Ohio) said on CBS News’s “Face the Nation” that if Republicans could not get their act together, “then I think obviously, there will be a deal that will have to be done.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) put the ball in Republicans’ court. “I know there are traditional Republicans who are good women and men who want to see government function, but they are unable to do it within the ranks of their own conference, which is dominated by the extremist wing,” he said in a PBS appearance. “And that’s why we continue to extend the hand of bipartisanship to them.”
On Sunday, Jeffries put a little more meat on the bones to flesh out the terms of a deal. As Politico reported, he wants an agreement “to ensure that votes are taken on bills that have substantial Democratic support and substantial Republican support so that the extremists aren’t able to dictate the agenda.” That’s well enough, but who is going to be speaker and under what circumstances?
In a perfect world — or frankly, in a sane European parliamentary system — less-crazy Republicans, supportive of Ukraine and Israel, uninterested in a baseless impeachment inquest against President Biden and desirous of keeping government open, would depart from the Republican Party, form something perhaps called the “Constitutional Conservative Party” and then join a coalition government with Democrats. If Democrats had a majority of the House excluding MAGA Republicans (almost certainly), Jeffries would take the speakership, maybe just for a set term, to be followed by a speaker chosen from among the Constitutional Conservative members. Sounds pretty rational and constructive, right?
Well, it would take a minor miracle for Republicans to vote for Jeffries as speaker under any conditions. Moreover, a coalition that entailed support for foreign aid, compliance with a budget deal in accord with the debt ceiling deal and an end to MAGA inquisitions would put Republican heretics at odds with their own party, virtually ensuring that they would face a primary challenge in 2024. Short of a political deathbed conversion, then, finding five Republicans to participate in such an arrangement would most likely be an uphill climb.
If that would not work, perhaps a more limited deal could be possible. A sufficient number of House Democrats could vote for a compromise Republican speaker such as Turner, Rogers or Bacon and/or abstain (or not show), reducing the threshold Republicans would need to get a majority of those voting. The rules would need to be rewritten to turn the so-called Hastert Rule on its head. In other words, when a majority of each caucus supports a measure, there would be a definitive period for debate and amendments followed by an up-or-down vote. That should get aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan through and get a spending deal finished. As for impeachment, since there would never be a majority of Democrats supporting such a maneuver, the “inquiry” would be suspended.
Now, it’s far from clear that there would be enough Republicans to pull this off. Democrats could balk as well, refusing to vote for a Republican speaker. We could well face a standoff between moderate Democrats and Republicans. (Your party’s speaker or ours?)
Nevertheless, this kind of agreement might be the only way out of complete paralysis. Even with a compromise GOP speaker, Democrats could still crow that Republicans cannot govern themselves. They’d also get top priorities accomplished (e.g., Ukraine aid). Republicans would still exercise normal oversight (but not impeachment) and try to form bipartisan majorities for their ideas (if they have them).
Still, that also seems a bridge too far for unhinged Republicans and for spineless moderates who to date have been afraid to cross the looniest Republicans. This might take quite a while — as the world waits for the indispensable nation’s Republican Party to grow up.
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